Hughesair (Inflection Point)

Retired physician and air taxi operator, science writer and part time assistant professor, these editorials cover a wide range of topics. Mostly non political, mostly true, I write more from a lifetime of experience and from research, more science than convention. Subjects cover medicine, Alaska aviation, economics, technology and an occasional book review. Globalization or Democracy documents the historical roots of Oligarchy, the road to colonialism and tyranny

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Location: Homer, Alaska, United States

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Thursday, September 09, 2004

National Debt and Deficit

Federal Tax deposits reporting pages have been partially off line for several weeks due to internal computer problems. They are back up now, so here is an update for anyone who cares about such big numbers.

On 27 May last year, the debt limit was increased to 7.382 trillion. This time last year the debt was 6.16 t, yesterday the debt closed at 7.33 t., an increase of 1.17t. By contrast, the GDP will run about 11 t.

The Budget is about 2.4 t. Last year's tax revenue was about 2.0 t. The YTD tax deposits are 1.6 t. and running about 50 billion ahead of last year. Federal Tax Deposit

To put these difficult to fathom figures into perspective, lets imagine a home owner working for a 1.1 million company on a salary of 200 thousand a year with a mortgage of 616 thousand dollars who took out a second mortgage of 117 thousand to cover an unexpected casualty. He or she is expecting bonus or salary increases of 5 thousand and may for other reasons run a budget overage of 40 thousand dollars. This analogy subtracts 7 zeros from the unfathomable. Subtract one more zero and it represents your share of the action as a responsible voter although in truth it's the government's problem not yours. They are on your payroll.

This parallel in real life paints a picture that is not at all undoable, but the prudent family must know they are on thin ice. Everything depends on job security and the health of the company, i.e. the economy or GDP. An increase in salary (taxis) may well result in less of a bonus or future salary increase. On the other hand, work hard, be productive and carry the company to the next level and a more substantial raise may be forthcoming.

This is not to suggest one political position or another on taxis. Those positions are political and defy mathematics. It does however point out that neither political position is tenable without a strong productive economy. Our recovery from the recent depression, on the technology side anyway, seems only half way there.

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