Hughesair (Inflection Point)

Retired physician and air taxi operator, science writer and part time assistant professor, these editorials cover a wide range of topics. Mostly non political, mostly true, I write more from experience than from research and more from science than convention. Subjects cover medicine, Alaska aviation, economics, technology and an occasional book review. The Floatplane book is out there. I am currently working on Hippocrates a History of Medicine and Globalism. Enjoy!

My Photo
Name:
Location: Homer, Alaska, United States

Alaska Floatplane: AVAILABLE ON KINDLE

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Globalism or Democracy

Book will be out soon
Globalism or Democracy
Globalism brought the Western World a spectacular level of cooperation, openness, competition and trade. Business and trade interdependence held in check unwanted nationalistic expansionist forays. Economists, military strategists, young people, the media and academia embraced Globalization in solitary. What could possibly go wrong?

Sophistical Refutations, Aristotle’s 13 Fallacies, 350 BC


1.     Accent: changing the meaning of a quotation by changing or ignoring the accent on certain words, common journalistic or political spin.
2.     Amphiboly: use of language that has multiple meanings to obfuscate or mislead.
3.     Equivocation: deliberate misuse of language to obscure, confuse and belittle a concept
4.     Composition: Assertion that an overall principal is true when only a part it is true
5.     Division: Assert an overall truth as support that a part of the overall is true also.
6.     Figure of Speech: using the vagaries of language, gender or cases to assert fallacy
7.     Accident: use of a general rule in support of a false specific.
8.     Affirming the Consequent: arguing backwards from a true consequent to a fallacy, used repeatedly by journalists in what can only be called perception management.
9.     In a Certain Respect/Simply; True in small area, therefore true in larger area, as in the application of medical statistics
10.  Ignorance of Refutation: Evidence leads to X, yet conclusion Y is drawn.
11.  Begging the Question: If a topic is not wrong, it is right. If you’re not good, you are bad.
12.  False Cause: X and Y are associated; therefore, X causes Y without any proof.
13.  Many Questions: to change the subject slightly in order to answer a similar question and assert a false or unrelated answer.

Monday, January 27, 2020

EHRs

EHRs are trying to do the wrong thing. A clinical note, consultation or completed H&P express an elegant succinct communication between physicians and an ongoing novel of a patients progress. Not only does each encounter, each patient, each disease present a unique narrative, but each specialty and each physician contribute a unique perspective. No way can a team or an EHR reflect the color or content of a patient encounter. The physician dictated note alone can capture the subtleties of an encounter or facilitate continuity-of-care. The nightmare of entering EHRs in the presents of a patient pales by comparison to reading an EHR and trying to find what the previous physician was thinking among the vastness of irrelevant and superfluous misinformation, pages and pages of it.
       EHRs should be the preview of nurse alone and relegated to a separate file, Nurses Notes. Physician notes, dictated by the physician alone should constitute the official record. All the legislated requirements and their execution can remain in the nurse’s EHR.

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Globalism

           My new book Globalism or Democracy is coming out next week, Indi Owl Press. I'm not yet sure of the distribution, but I think this work is an important addition to the understanding of the monumental choices we face today. The viciousness of today's dialog masks the underlying issues and history of our conflict, and conflict it is. So, here's a bit of background as to where I'm coming from, in presuming to write about the economics and history of Globalization.           
John Ise 1885-1908,[1] was my professor of economics at the University of Kansas before the Korean War. Ise earned a PhD from Harvard 1914, taught economics in the business school and was president of the American Economics Association. He was all about liquidity, supply and demand, margin, and the GDP as a product of velocity and liquidity. An agrarian philosopher, Ise was the most highly respected professor on campus. I was drawn to economics largely because of Ise, his common sense and grass roots philosophy of business. On track for a major in economics, when the Chinese crossed the Yalu River, I ended up in the Air Force.
            Four years later I enrolled in the University of Michigan redirecting my studies to science and medicine. That early goal of economics and international commerce, however, remained in the back of my mind. When I retired from full time clinical practice, I started writing about the science and business of clinical medicine. With multiple employees, business challenges, investing and later the business of operating an air taxi business in Alaska, the interest in fundamental supply and demand economics re-emerged along with a concern for the apparently unrecognized loss of liquidity from the demand side of our markets, due to Globalization. 
            Alaskan winters were a time to write. They were also a time to observe and write about the destructive effects of the liquidity drain. Ross Perot reported on the “Giant sucking sound” of liquidity drain in his presidential campaign in 1996. 
            Firms hiring fewer than 500 employees account for 99.7% of US labor. The working population had accounted for most of the demand side of our markets, a fact largely overlooked by economists, the media and our leadership.
            This book has been two years in the writing during which time there have been dramatic challenges and fierce contention over Globalism. A shadow unelected globalist infrastructure driven initially by idealism and military strategy evolved into personal gain furthered by the outside international influence and furthered by the (CCP) Chinese Communist Party. In the evolution of this struggle we have come to question the meaning of Democracy, citizenship and the security of our nation. This book, Globalization or Democracy, (You can have one or the other but not bothattempts to outline the many elements of our struggle with Globalism and its evolving role.


[1] https://www.washburn.edu/reference/cks/mapping/ise/index.html


Wednesday, January 01, 2020

Hate






Hate spreads like a virus and if directed can destroy a rival or motivate a mob. Hitler mastered the talent for using hate to create an irrational mass hysteria of conquest and evil.  Political campaigns had stimulated hate to one degree or another since I can remember, but the blanket of hate today exceeds them all. Is hate not a malignant disease that metastasizes and spreads into a mass hysteria of blind rage ending in death? Does it not act more like a virus than a rational dislike -- without evidence. How do rational educated young people come to such a uniform blind hysteria of hate without casting doubt or questioning the source? 
Some genetic studies show a DNA sequence for cooperation. Might these sequences not express love and hate as evolved but opposed mechanisms for both cooperation and defense, capable of being turned on by friends, leaders, media, teachers or just plain nasty propaganda? If so, humor and love may be the only vaccine. Time to break the spell and question the data, inductive reasoning, love and humor now symptomatically missing.



Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Love

Santa is Jesus in disguise. That’s why there are so many of them, how they get down the chimney, how reindeer fly and why some are just fathers. Metaphorically its all about love.
Merry Christmas

Sunday, December 22, 2019

False Logic

Embracing hate and then looking for reasons to justify it, exemplifies the worst kind of wrong thinking. Like drug companies publishing only favorable results while ignoring unfavorable studies, deductive reasoning run backwards, leads to false conclusions. Another error in logic results from parallel thinking, where in because one true element in two parallel events is true, one concludes the other element to be true as well. Both errors in logic appear in news media on a regular basis. Furthermore, these fallacies drive various forms of mass hysterical or mob thinking.

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Liquidity

Liquidity and moral/confidence drive markets. China, Wall Street,  manufacturing down — consumer spending up — what don’t you get about this picture?

Tariffs indirectly but effectively drive liquidity from the supply side to the demand side of the market.   For 25 years or more, the reverse has been true. Our middle class has all but disappeared, much as it did following the Industrial Revolution early 1800s. That lost liquidity made billionaires in Silicon Valley, Wall Street and China., financing Chinas spectacular growth.

Tariffs, while hurting those who profited from the decline of the US economy, have returned a small portion of the American consumers lost wealth.

The ruling class would have you believe that the consumer pays the tariff. Not true, the supply side and indirectly China bear the cost. Alternative purchases result in greater retention of liquidity, which multiplies within our economy.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Contrary to the Noise

Wall Street and multinationals complain about Tariffs, because Tariffs reverse Globalism’s drain on liquidity from the middle class, the tax payer and the poor -- to the benefit of foreign interests, investment banks and big business. Tariffs effectively return some of that lost wealth to the people.

Fed chairman Powell reports a slowing of the supply side of the market and an economy driven by household spending. Reassuringly, the Consumer Price Index appears unaffected by the tariffs, also contrary to the noise.

Asymmetric trade had benefited wall street and multinationals by outsourcing manufacturing and jobs, benefiting from cheap labor, at a devastating cost to our middle-class and unemployed poor -- many living in their cars. We had lost a 30-year trade war with China and roughly 15 trillion in overall trade deficit – including Japan and Germany.

Tariffs now provide a partial recovery from that loss, but it will require many years of balanced trade to recover completely from that 30-year loss -- of liquidity drain from the demand side of the consumer market -- from the people.

The Chairman reports 2.5% GDP growth for the first half of the year, 2019; he did not seem to expect even 2% annual for the future. It would require double digit GDP growth to make up for the past 30 years of stagnation during which Wall Street and international interests superseded our own economic health.

Tariffs are good, and are poring added liquidity into the hands of consumers and small business -- a redistribution of concentrated wealth. That added liquidity turns over multiple times within the market, the multiple in the GDP. These are the facts, contrary to the noise.

Monday, August 12, 2019

The Economy and a Bucket of Sand

Some might call it a butterfly effect, wherein a small change in one element results in a very large change in outcome. The multiple in the Gross Domestic Product, GDP, acts in just this way. This small multiple drives the GDP. This often ignored turnover rate, this relatively small multiple, times a very large number of market dollars, defines the GDP, a product of market activity.

That small turnover rate in recent years has remained flat or decreased due to the lack of discretionary dollars in the consumer market. While families require multiple jobs to meet necessities, there has been little or no discretionary income. Families shopped at factory stores like WalMart or Costco, bought discounted on the internet, paid  down debt or didn’t  shop at all.

As the economy improved, nothing much changed. everyone worked to just catch up. Here is where the bucket of sand comes in. When poring water into a bucket of sand, you see no change. You keep poring and poring then all of a sudden you reach a critical point, the bucket overflows. Economically speaking, we have been poring water into a bucket of sand and see no progress. The multiple has not changed. If we can continue to build back the economy with increasing employment and increasing wages, we will eventually reach that critical point when consumers once again have abundant discretionary income. The bucket will overflow. Customers will demand service, quality, ambience and courtesy and will be willing to pay for it. At that critical point the multiple will grow and only a small increase in market activity/ turnover will yield exponential growth in GDP.

More importantly that per capita growth in GDP will accrue to the general population, not so much the to the multinationals as it has done in the past. It’s taken 30 years to strip wealth from our middle class. It will take time to rebuild it, not through globalism, but with US workers, small business, industry and productivity.

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Quantum Physiology

I just came from a morning meeting of the Innovative Collective in CDA where AI dominated the discussion. Medicine made great strides in molecular biology and understanding neuro physiology. China claims advances in databases and machine learning based on knowledge of our own neuro networks and claims of artificial intelligence.

Pure conjecture, but there surely exists a whole strata of human physiology beneath the molecular level, call it a quantum layer. If the progress of medical science from the anatomic to the chemical and then the molecular level tells us anything, a yet more microscopic sub level of physiology lurks just beneath the known level of microbiology. There must be a functioning level of quantum mechanics active within our physiology. If so our attempts at AI basing chips on known neuro networks may fail to provide the source of creative thinking. A whole halo of quantum entanglement, a halo wherein cognitive thinking, dreams, intuition and inspiration live and may float freely within the human brain at a subatomic level, elusive to AI’s electronic circuits.