Hughesair (Inflection Point)

Retired physician and air taxi operator, science writer and part time assistant professor, these editorials cover a wide range of topics. Mostly non political, mostly true, I write more from a lifetime of experience and from research, more science than convention. Subjects cover medicine, Alaska aviation, economics, technology and an occasional book review. Globalization or Democracy documents the historical roots of Oligarchy, the road to colonialism and tyranny

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Thursday, December 06, 2018

BS

Economists offer no proof that globalism turned out anyway other than a total disaster, yet insist upon fixing it once again. Furthermore, economists insist that Trump's policies are a step backwards into a world that will never return offering no proof that the peoples solution - by the democratic process - is not in fact the only survivable course. In twenty years we will wish we had listened to Sanders and Trump.

Further to that assertion, economists refer back to an accounting formula: S+(m-x)=I+(G-T) where  S - domestic savings, m - imports, x - exports, I - investments, G - government spending, T - treasury revenue.

In brief, the trade deficit equals the difference between investments and savings, meaning the trade deficit results in USD out-there in the rest of the world, available for investment back into the US. Economists name this accounting equation as an "identity," which seems to mean created by god and un-refutable, available capital on the left and demand for capital on the right. The explanation continues that the deficit amounts to borrowing capital for expanding productivity and growth citing an association between trade deficit and prosperity. Presumably,  productivity would earn a return greater than the cost of borrowing. Neither interest on the national debt or Treasury bonds fuel productivity. Some capital improvements might.

It would be a faint cry to point out that an association between prosperity and trade deficit does not prove a cause and effect relationship, and if it did, which is the cause and which is the effect -- a common consideration in medicine but apparently not in economics. The scientific method is remarkable for its absence.

The sacred formula, or at least those citing the virtues of a trade deficit, fail to account for the movement of capital. Rather the equals-sign in the above equation should be an arrow pointing to the flow of liquidity from the domestic market to the investment side of the equation in order to pay the budget deficit and the investment world of banks, hedge funds and dark pools. In reality, the deficit amounts to movement of capital from the 99%, on the left of the equation. to the enrichment of the 1% on the right, a mechanism that has yet to be explained by the champions of globalism.

Thomas Piketty in his book, Capital, describes the unsustainable consequences of capital growth exceeding income. No matter what economists do to repair globalization, this transfer of wealth, and its sequestration, will persist, draining free capital away from the consumer market resulting in stagnation and rejection of globalism by the masses. The opinion against globalism would be 99% but for the continued claim by academics and media that it was all for the best.

What's worse, economists still underestimate the true damage that has already been done over 45 years of this obsession. We are becoming a third world nation:

Lower level of education than the rest of the OECD, organization for economic cooperation and development with:
Worst longevity
Worst public health yardsticks
Highest incarceration rate
Highest HIV rate
Highest poverty rate
Highest obesity rate
Highest teen age pregnancy (and illegitimacy rate)
Widespread suicide and depression (tattoos and piercings)
Greatest drug and alcohol abuse
Furthermore, we appear to have the longest work hours, multiple jobs, both parents working, poor management of children and discipline, loss of civility, denial of citizenship, denial of democratic principals, widespread violation of law and rejection of cultural mores.

The Fed has pored vast sums of money into the system, but most of it finds its way into the hands of the 1%. The GDP is growing, but with very little velocity (M1 x Velocity = GDP) The velocity, call it energy in the GDP remains at a record low.

Emphatically, globalism cannot be fixed; its structurally flawed; it should go the way of colonialism and communism, not a step backwards but forward with a commitment to fixing the environment, education, health, banking, trade and infrastructure. Strengthen our democracy. Teach citizenship and parenting. Restore the rule of law and our commitment to democracy.

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