Hughesair (Inflection Point)

Retired physician and air taxi operator, science writer and part time assistant professor, these editorials cover a wide range of topics. Mostly non political, mostly true, I write more from a lifetime of experience and from research, more science than convention. Subjects cover medicine, Alaska aviation, economics, technology and an occasional book review. Globalization or Democracy documents the historical roots of Oligarchy, the road to colonialism and tyranny

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Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Google Truck

How much momentum does a Snap-On tool truck have driving down the high-way at top speed? Well not as much as before if the driver throws out all of his tools. Sergey Brin and Larry Page, founders of Google, have sold a million shares apiece since the first of the year, and Eric Schmidt and a senior VP account for another million shares sold. They must be building a house.

Liquidity should suffer by the addition of that amount of stock thrown into the pool. The TRO based on today's volume, however, calculates to be 279%. On the one hand that's a lot of money chasing relatively scarce shares, on the other it says something about the steadiness and maturity of the insiders.

The guidance given by the company suggests 05 earnings of $5.45, 06 eps $7.20 and one analyst lists 07 est of $9.40. Looking at just 05 and today's price the future P/E looks like 54.66, that's about right, noting Yahoo at a P/E of 43. If the momentum is to hold, not too many tools thrown from the Snap-On truck --- multiply the 7,20 by 54.66. This sure amounts to a wild ride down the high-way. (Completely unwarranted opinion)

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