Liquidity

I’ve been away, but the market never goes away. I guess we look under the carpet for any positive signs. Liquidity may be such a sign. Daily Tax Return is a short-term indicator of liquidity and thus short term, 4-5 days, market movement. Not 100% reliable, but comparing year over daily change, predicts market movement, statistically, better than most.

Last Friday 7.84 b collected versus a year ago Friday of 5.28 b., a plus 48%. For the month, we are a hair less than even, and for the fiscal year – 9 mo. – we are a half a percent ahead. This is not earth shaking but the economy, reflected in personal and corporate income, is crossing the line going up at a point on last year’s line that was going down. The crossing point may be a good omen.