Hughesair (Inflection Point)

Retired physician and air taxi operator, science writer and part time assistant professor, these editorials cover a wide range of topics. Mostly non political, mostly true, I write more from experience than from research and more from science than convention. Subjects cover medicine, Alaska aviation, economics, technology and an occasional book review. The Floatplane book is out there. I am currently working on Hippocrates a History of Medicine and Globalism. Enjoy!

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Monday, November 20, 2017

Daily Treasury Statement

This tip alone is more than worth the price of the book. However, readers who follow my blog, have heard it before. It's a matter of  market liquidity. The daily tax revenue acts as a fairly reliable proxy for expansion and contraction of disposable income. To be sure, one must consider the number of IPOs, stock buy backs, accusations and mergers thus taking into account extraneous market events. However, the most recent two or three days of treasury receipts compared with the same dates the year before, usually correlates surprisingly well with current market movement. Some would look at just one day; unfortunately the most re cent day posted will always be a day or two old.
Go to: fed.tres.gov / current statement, pick PDFs, scroll down to the bottom and find on the left, three boxes of total receipts, daily monthly and year to date. Write these numbers down with the date along with, on the right and up a bit the current day's national debt.
Now return to the starting page and find Archive under Current. Choose Archive, select the prior year and the relevant quarter and look for the same month and day as the current report. Note, last year comes a day of the week earlier; use the date rather than the day. Open the PDFs and copy down the same numbers as previously copied on the current. Now calculate the percentage differences. Again as a prediction of stock market movement, the daily year over percentage may predict tomorrow's market strength. Of course this will not always work; it's just a statistic, but it is frosting on the cake if you are already in the market and know what's going on.
As a bonus, looking at the increase in National debt year over, and comparing that with the year to date revenue demonstrates in exact terms the success, or lack thereof, of government economic policies, not withstanding certain unavoidable enviromental disasters.

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